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And back to recession fears

Bond yields fall as recession fears grow after weak personal spending numbers from the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it is being met with any signs of a sustained fall in inflation. So, just how far do central banks need to go?

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Understanding how little we understand

We now understand how little we understand about inflation says the Fed’s Jerome Powell. That doesn’t inspire you with confidence says NAB’s Gavin Friend!

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Less US confidence, tough talking ECB

Hawkish commentary from the ECB has pushed up European yields, whilst weak consumer sentiment hits US equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through market moves overnight.

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Heading for a choppy end to Q2

NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says US equities reflect the uncertainty over the impact of rate rises and the worsening situation in Ukraine.

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Is bad news good news these days?

A downgrade to inflation expectations on Friday gave market sentiment a boost. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s been taken as a sign that central banks might have to do less to soften demand and a reduced fear in recession risk.

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Unconditional commitment, come what may

Weaker data from Europe. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we’re already seeing a watering down of expectations for anything higher than 25bp for the ECB’s first hike, whilst Jerome Powell renews the Fed’s unconditional commitment to do what it takes.

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Random Stuff

Should the ACCC be charged with regulation?

The framing paper for the Vertigan Review asked whether the ACCC should be responsible for the economic regulation of the telecommunications industry. Should they?

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Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy

The FOMC met and gave the market what it was expecting, says NAB David d e Garis. Although we have still seen a fall in equities and a sharp rise in bond yields. Hear the take-outs from the Jerome Powell press conference in this morning’s podcast

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Nordaus’ Climate Model Debunked

William Nordhaus won a Nobel prize for his work on climate change and the economy. Steve Keen talks about one sizeable flaw in his modelling.

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