Malcolm Turnbull wants one. Now Mike Quigley wants one too, if only to put some numbers behind the debate around alternative technology solutions. But when a cost benefit analysis is provided, doesn’t it always say what the sponsor wants to hear?
For that reason isn’t Mike Quigley right when he suggests that the Communications Alliance should be the group doing the numbers work? Well, somebody should. Otherwise we’ll end up with another report driven by an agenda.
This week on CrossTalk we suggest that we should develop a more collaborative approach to the development of a cost benefit analysis. In other words, provide a platform where anyone in the industry can suggest inputs for the model – the data and assumptions that will influence the result. Why leave it in the hands of economists who don’t have the full range of technical experience? With full visibility of the inputs multiple economists could then build models to give us a range of possible answers. Each would be open to full and rigorous debate.
It’s an idea that gets the nod from the three economists I spoke to for this week’s program:
– Henry Ergas, a professor of infrastructure economics at the University of Wollongong, who built a cost benefit analysis for the NBN back in 2009.
– Steve Keen, author of Debunking Economics, who is currently working on a computer program to develop a more sophisticated model of the economy.
– Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics and former chair of the Government 2.0 Taskforce.
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Fickle equity investors respond to unsurprising Powell comments
There was little surprising in Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, but a sharp response on US equity markets. Share investors clearly didn’t get the memo says NAB’s Ray Attrill, on this 6th year anniversary episode of The Morning Call.
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Inflation (almost) everywhere
Rising yields in Germany and the UK show the inflation story is not just a US dynamic, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. It’s everywhere.
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High hopes keep getting higher
Thursday 26th August 2021
Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That’s helped the Aussie dollar again today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment is being driven by infection rates starting to subside in the US. Phil Dobbie asks how fragile this optimism could be, if number were to rise again. The ECB’s Philip Lane painted a positive picture, suggesting the Delta variant won’t impact the European recovery story because fatalities and serious illness have being contained by the vaccine. He also indicated, whether through PEPP or another vehicle, they’ll be providing favourable financing conditions through to next March, at least. It’s very different to the direction being taken by the Fed, but more on that in tomorrow’s podcast.
