NAB – The Morning Call · The inflation shock we were warned about

The inflation shock we were warned about

Thursday 13th May 2021

US CPI numbers came in on the high side today, and markets have reacted swiftly, with equities falling sharply and the bond sell-off pushing Treasury yields up, although not quite as high as late March when inflation fears were at fever pitch. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the market is over-reacting. After all, it’s one month, it includes the base effect of last year’s lockdowns and the core number is not too far from the Fed’s target range. It could easily settle down in a month or two. The UK could be next to see this supply driven inflation ramp up, with the GDP numbers showing a significant rise in March, even before lockdown was fully eased. There’s only one focus for the markets right now and nobody is exactly sure how it will play out.

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