Even NAB’s Gavin Friend is starting to think a no-deal Brexit is the most likely outcome. At least the EU got their budget passed today, and the US has given itself another week to reach a deal on its stimulus package. Plus, the take-outs form today’s ECB meeting.

US inflation is up to 9.1% yoy – more than expected. The Fed’s Raphael Bostic has said everything was in play” when it comes to the July rate rise. NAB’s David de Garis says you don’t need to be a genius to figure out what he means, given 100 seems to be the new 75.

A big drop in US equities shows hopes of a stimulus deal have collapsed, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the rising pound suggests nobody believes Boris Johnson when he says he’s calling off talks over Brexit.