Bond markets have reacted to the softer than anticipated core CPI read for the US, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it won’t deflect the course of the Fed. Ivan Colhoun takes us through yesterday’s NAB Business Survey. Later today, two banks who might lift rates by 50 bp – the Bank of Canada (almost certainly) and the RBNZ (possibly).

Bond yields higher again in response to hawkish Fed plans. We could see a further rise if US CPI comes in higher than expected says NAB’s Tapas Strickland.

Although there’s volatility around, the common thread is still the rise in bond yields says NAB’s Ray Attrill. Inflation fears abound, not helped by a sharp rise in food prices last month.

NAB has upped its forecast for 10 year bond yields in the US to 3%, says Ken Crompton, as Fed speakers continue to talk it up. But credit is still rising, despite the higher rates. When will it bite?

Risk appetite is under pressure ever since Lael Brainard spoke, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Now the Fed minutes talk of a $95b monthly QT in a matter of months. One casualty is the Aussie dollar.

Brainard’s comments about a faster reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has helped steepen yield curves says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, whilst Ivan Colhoun says market expectations for the RBA’S tightening are a little over egged.

Not a lot of data releases, but lots of consternation over Ukraine and global inflation. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says peace talks are continuing and a quick turnaround is still possible. Meanwhile more sanctions look likely, driving oil higher and denting the Euro today.

US payrolls numbers on Friday have concreted in the chance of a 50 bp rate hike by the Fed, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. Meanwhile, Europe is facing record inflation levels but are reluctant to move too quickly. Tomorrow, perhaps, the RBA will signal a faster schedule.