Month: June 2022

And back to recession fears

Bond yields fall as recession fears grow after weak personal spending numbers from the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it is being met with any signs of a sustained fall in inflation. So, just how far do central banks need to go?

Understanding how little we understand

We now understand how little we understand about inflation says the Fed’s Jerome Powell. That doesn’t inspire you with confidence says NAB’s Gavin Friend!

Less US confidence, tough talking ECB

Hawkish commentary from the ECB has pushed up European yields, whilst weak consumer sentiment hits US equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through market moves overnight.

Is globalisation a good thing, or a bad thing

Globalisation could be slowing innovation. Prof Steve Keen explains why on this week’s Debunking Economics podcast. L

Heading for a choppy end to Q2

NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says US equities reflect the uncertainty over the impact of rate rises and the worsening situation in Ukraine.

Is bad news good news these days?

A downgrade to inflation expectations on Friday gave market sentiment a boost. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s been taken as a sign that central banks might have to do less to soften demand and a reduced fear in recession risk.

Unconditional commitment, come what may

Weaker data from Europe. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we’re already seeing a watering down of expectations for anything higher than 25bp for the ECB’s first hike, whilst Jerome Powell renews the Fed’s unconditional commitment to do what it takes.

Markets split as Powell admits recession is possible

Despite a rise in US equities for most of the session NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests markets are becoming more attuned to the likelihood of a recession. Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate helped fuel that pessimism.

Brighter days ahead

As Australia emerges from the longest night, is the outlook brighter? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this morning’s positive turn in risk sentiment doesn’t mean recession fears have gone away, it could just be covering of short positions from last week.

Is the RBA preparing to go harder?

On today’s podcast Ray Attrill is asked whether RBA Governor Philip Lowe will talk up the speed and height of rate hikes today, even though he gave 2.5% as a likely top rate only last week on the 7.30 Report. But a week is a long time for central banks lately.

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