NAB – The Morning Call · And back to recession fears

And back to recession fears

Friday 1st July 2022

Yields are lower in the US and Europe as recession fears grow, prompted by weaker than expected personal spending in the US, with a very strong chance of a negative Q2 GDP, which would mean the US economy was in recession. Whilst you might hope less consumption would mean falling inflation, NAB’s Tapas Strickland days there’s little sign of it yet. It wasn’t just the US receiving bad news. There was a flurry of negative data for Europe, even before the EDB lifts rates, and a particularly bad activity outlook report from New Zealand. So, if the US, Europe, UK and New Zealand all go into recession, does that mean Australia will follow?

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