Wednesday 6th July 2022
The Euro is getting closer to parity with the US dollar. In today’s podcast NAB’s Skye Masters points out that the Markets team had forecast parity by the end of the year, but it looks like it wil happen much sooner than that. The big moves overnight, including a sizable fall in oil and copper, show recession fears are front and centre, even though there’s been very little data, and what there has been has not been particularly bad news. Skye says days like today, where there are some contradictory shifts, demonstrate the importance of looking at the trends and focusing on the bigger picture. Tomorrow could easily see a reversal of the moves we’ve seen today. The US share market had a wide trading range today, showing just how much uncertainty there is in the direction of travel right now.
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The Kiwi flies, Powell stands still
The NZ dollar soared as the RBNZ kept rates on hold yesterday. NAB’s David de Garis says the dollar has kept that level since. Otherwise markets were fairly muted given a total lack of other surprising news.
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Is the Biden Trump gap closing?
Markets are cautious today. It’s not just rising COVID numbers, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, the US election next week could be more contestable than we thought.
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Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words
Whilst all eyes are still on Ukraine, trading is thin ahead of a long weekend says NAB’s David de Garis. But bonds have been shifting in response to the FOMC minutes, with no nugget suggesting a half percent rate rise in March.
