Monday 11th July 2022
It is a bit weird that positive US jobs data would be seen as heightening the expectations of a recession, but that seems to be the case. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains on today’s podcast, the strength in the non-farm payrolls numbers of Friday did nothing to ease expectations that the Fed will continue with a rapid pace of rate hikes, and that could easily lead to a recession in the US. In Europe ECB speakers, like Robert Holtzman, are pushing for larger rate hikes even though rising energy prices (and shortages) are a very real prospect, with the next meeting this week. Meanwhile, recession prospects and a strengthening US dollar are playing havoc in emerging markets, as evidenced by the situation in Sri Lanka right now.