Month: August 2022

A positive outlook, apart from the downturn

Equity markets pushed higher in the US on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says strong corporate earnings have helped, and a belief that the Fed will not be moving much further on rate hikes – even though Fed speakers are keen to suggest otherwise.

Not convinced by the Fed

Markets are still responding to the weaker CPI read this week and don’t seem to believe the Fed when it says there’s still work to do. But NAB’s David de Garis says oil is the real inflationary concern as the northern winter approaches.

False hope on easing inflation?

Markets have responded favourably to a better-than-expected headline CPI read in the US, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s no clear sign that the core figure is falling yet. It’s too early to call a peak on inflation.

Inflation Day

US CPI numbers are out later today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Fed will be focused on the core numbers, the factors that they can try and control. Plus, why did Australia see a positive outlook in the NAB Business Survey, but falling consumer sentiment.

Markets in limbo

Markets are a bit in limbo today. NAB’s Skye Masters says there has been some consolidation after the initial response to the payrolls data on Friday, but basically everyone is hanging out for the US CPI numbers tomorrow.

US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

US payrolls numbers were way higher than expected, with wages also increasing. On today’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill is asked if this means we can expect about 75 basis point hike from the Fed at their next meeting.

Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain. It’s just grim there.

Whilst markets are uncertain about the future of the global economy, NAB’s Gavin Friend describes the clear direction indicated by the Bank of England. It’s grim.

The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories

Inflation down to 2% with no decline in unemployment and no fall in output? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the Fed’s James Bullard’s views on the path to ‘credible disinflation’. Plus, what to expect from the Bank of England, and a rise in the Aussie trade surplus today?

Pelosi in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near almost done

It’s autocracy versus democracy says Nancy Pelosi as she touches down in Taiwan. Markets were concerned, but Fed speakers have had more impact on markets, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland saying bond yields have unwound the falls that followed last week’s FOMC.

Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa

Is a recession looming? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says indicator today make it clear economies are slowing down, but there is no sign of the Fed (or other central banks) from easing off on hikes. Is this really reflected in market prices?

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