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Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read

Markets have abandoned hope of a pivot by the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the latest non-manufacturing ISM survey shows the US economy remains resilient, with a tight labour market. That’s not the environment to see the Fed ease off the pedal.

Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

Markets are responding to the UK u-turn and a weak US ISM read, says NABs Tapas Strickland, plus adjustments to short positions held last week. And a look ahead to the RBA today.

UK ticked off by IMF, whilst BoE goes back to QE

The Bank of England has suspended bond sales and has started buying them. NAB’s David de Garis explains why the sudden about turn. Is the crisis over for the UK?

US dollar and bond yields continue to rise, till when?

Bond yields continue to rise globally, with NAB’s Skye Masters saying the Fed and other central banks are working hard to convince markets that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Meanwhile the Bank of England promises a significant response to the unease of the last few days, but not till November.

Unruly Britannia

NAB’s Taylor Nugent says uncertainty is driving the pound lower and yields higher. Can the markets rebalance without early intervention from the BoE?

How much money is too much?

The issue with Kwasi Kwarteng’s approach in the UK is not how much money he is spending, but how quickly it is happening. Me and Steve Keen on this week’s Debunking Economics podcast.

The pound hammered, will it last?

Markets responded harshly to the UK’s minibudget on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a mini Sterling crisis in the making.

Central bank overload

Bond yields in the US continued to rise one day on from the Fed. We’re close to 2011 highs says NAB’s Ken Crompton. In the UK where the BoE lifted rates by 50bp whilst Japan’s Ministry of Finance was forced to step to defend the Yen after the BoJ again did nothing.

0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff

The Fed hiked by 75bp as expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets responded more to the dot plots which have been revised markedly since June, suggesting higher rates for longer. Plus, Putin’s bluff, and the BoE later.

Fed to push higher, Putin pushing for referendums

The Fed will push rates higher tomorrow by 75 basis points at least. Riksbank surprised with a 100bp rise but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, they are earlier in the tightening path. Meanwhile, is the war in Ukraine about to get worse?

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