Markets have responded favourably to a better-than-expected headline CPI read in the US, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s no clear sign that the core figure is falling yet. It’s too early to call a peak on inflation.

US CPI numbers are out later today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Fed will be focused on the core numbers, the factors that they can try and control. Plus, why did Australia see a positive outlook in the NAB Business Survey, but falling consumer sentiment.

Markets are a bit in limbo today. NAB’s Skye Masters says there has been some consolidation after the initial response to the payrolls data on Friday, but basically everyone is hanging out for the US CPI numbers tomorrow.

US payrolls numbers were way higher than expected, with wages also increasing. On today’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill is asked if this means we can expect about 75 basis point hike from the Fed at their next meeting.

Whilst markets are uncertain about the future of the global economy, NAB’s Gavin Friend describes the clear direction indicated by the Bank of England. It’s grim.

Inflation down to 2% with no decline in unemployment and no fall in output? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the Fed’s James Bullard’s views on the path to ‘credible disinflation’. Plus, what to expect from the Bank of England, and a rise in the Aussie trade surplus today?

It’s autocracy versus democracy says Nancy Pelosi as she touches down in Taiwan. Markets were concerned, but Fed speakers have had more impact on markets, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland saying bond yields have unwound the falls that followed last week’s FOMC.

Is a recession looming? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says indicator today make it clear economies are slowing down, but there is no sign of the Fed (or other central banks) from easing off on hikes. Is this really reflected in market prices?

Larry Summers said on Friday that Jerome Powell’s belief that the Fed had reached a neutral rate was wishful thinking, with inflation clearly not tamed yet. So do central banks need to move even faster? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the expectation for the RBA tomorrow is a 50 basis point hike, nothing more than that just yet.

Markets seem to be seeing the US fall in GDP again as a sign that the Fed will go easier on rate hikes, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says that is not the way Jerome Powell sees it.