RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
It’s easier to predict today’s Melbourne Cup winner than ha ve a clear idea of what the RBA will announce today, says NAB’s Ray Attrill on the latest Moring Call podcast.
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The winds of change in central bank policy
The RBA will announce an end to YCC tomorrow says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. It had become dysfunctional against the global market pressures driving front end yields lower. But there will be a lot more news in the week to come, with the Fed and the BoE also meeting.
Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again.
A sea of green for US equities, but again the volatility has been in bonds. The RBA failed to buy up three year Aussie bonds. NAB’s David de Garis says he doesn’t think this is a sign that they have given up on yield control. And the ECB still think inflation will pass.
Going bond crazy
Big movements in bond yields. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there’s an expectation that more central banks will move rate rises forward. Including the RBA?
Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that the US is losing control of inflation. The debate is still unresolved says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but expectations could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Currency Wars
The floating of currencies has created a massive forex industry. Steve Keen says it has made life harder for speculators, which is a good thing, but the world missed a trick when it igmnored Keyne’s idea of the Bancor.
Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
Oil hit the highest since 2014. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says OPECs reluctance to up production is a big part of it. Also today, as banks continue to talk about tightening, will Joe bIden finally get some extra fiscal stimulus over the line?
Powell wants time to heal
On Friday Jerome Powell says its time to taper, but not raise rates. The labour market needs time to heal, he said. Meanwhile, NAB’s Ray Attrill says positive PMIs at the end of the week show whilst we have inflation, there’s no sign of stagnation.
Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
Bond markets have been bitten by the inflation bug, says NAB’s David de Garis, with bond yields pricing in a 5 year average close to 3% for the US, and over 4% for the UK.
The inflation debate heats up
NAB’s David de Garis says the Fed Beige Book today reports on how many businesses say customers can cope with increased prices. So does that mean inflation will be transitory? Everyone has their own idea!
