The Morning Call

Start your day with the Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from NAB’s team of expert market economists and strategists.

Going bond crazy

Big movements in bond yields. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there’s an expectation that more central banks will move rate rises forward. Including the RBA?

Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that the US is losing control of inflation. The debate is still unresolved says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but expectations could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend

Oil hit the highest since 2014. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says OPECs reluctance to up production is a big part of it. Also today, as banks continue to talk about tightening, will Joe bIden finally get some extra fiscal stimulus over the line?

Powell wants time to heal

On Friday Jerome Powell says its time to taper, but not raise rates. The labour market needs time to heal, he said. Meanwhile, NAB’s Ray Attrill says positive PMIs at the end of the week show whilst we have inflation, there’s no sign of stagnation.

Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high

Bond markets have been bitten by the inflation bug, says NAB’s David de Garis, with bond yields pricing in a 5 year average close to 3% for the US, and over 4% for the UK.

The inflation debate heats up

NAB’s David de Garis says the Fed Beige Book today reports on how many businesses say customers can cope with increased prices. So does that mean inflation will be transitory? Everyone has their own idea!

Earnings anything but a damp squid

NAB’s Ray Attrill says the US dollar is being kept in check as investors see other central banks moving faster than the Fed. Like the BoE for example, but will they live to regret it?

Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?

Inflation concerns are rising, pushing yields higher, whilst China is showing signs of a significant slowdown. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the big question is, is it a blip or something more fundamental?

Shares rising, despite everything. Please explain.

It was an exuberant session on Friday says NAB’s Tapas Strickland driven by US retail sales along with stellar bank earnings, but there are plenty of headwinds which should urge caution, including rate rises being brought forward as inflation fears continue to rise.

Have inflation concerns peaked?

Something has cracked, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, which has seen longer term bond yields falling, despite inflation concerns. Yet inflation remains a concern, even though PPI numbers in the US fell overnight.

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