False hope on easing inflation?

Markets have responded favourably to a better-than-expected headline CPI read in the US, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s no clear sign that the core figure is falling yet. It’s too early to call a peak on inflation.

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Inflation Day

US CPI numbers are out later today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Fed will be focused on the core numbers, the factors that they can try and control. Plus, why did Australia see a positive outlook in the NAB Business Survey, but falling consumer sentiment.

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Markets in limbo

Markets are a bit in limbo today. NAB’s Skye Masters says there has been some consolidation after the initial response to the payrolls data on Friday, but basically everyone is hanging out for the US CPI numbers tomorrow.

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US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

US payrolls numbers were way higher than expected, with wages also increasing. On today’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill is asked if this means we can expect about 75 basis point hike from the Fed at their next meeting.

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Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain. It’s just grim there.

Whilst markets are uncertain about the future of the global economy, NAB’s Gavin Friend describes the clear direction indicated by the Bank of England. It’s grim.

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The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories

Inflation down to 2% with no decline in unemployment and no fall in output? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the Fed’s James Bullard’s views on the path to ‘credible disinflation’. Plus, what to expect from the Bank of England, and a rise in the Aussie trade surplus today?

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Random Stuff

The Irony of Interest Rates

Classical economics assumes the economy will always arrive at an equilibrium, yet central banks spend an inordinate amount of time speculating on when they should next move interest rates, and in what direction. Why do they need to do that?

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Confidence versus COVID – the battle continues

The battle between confidence and COVID numbers is being played out in FX markets, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Europe could have a bigger influence next week, he says.

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PMIs to help show shape of the recovery

A full set of PMIs today – Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether they could knock today’s bullish market sentiment.

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