NAB – The Morning Call · New Zealand, first out? Mario’s return. Oil at pandemic high.
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New Zealand, first out? Mario’s return. Oil at pandemic high.

Thursday 4th February 2021

New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this means inflation could soon emerge and does this mean the RBNZ is the first central bank to seriously think about a post-pandemic rate rise? It’s a very different story in Australia, with Philip Lowe yesterday reinforcing the dovish tone set by the RBA on Tuesday. Strong US data and reflation expectations have pushed oil to the highest level since the pandemic began, even as US reserves fell less than expected. And Mario Draghi is back on the scene. He has accepted an invitation to form government in Italy and there’s been a sharp reaction in local equities and bonds.

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