Friday 28th May 2021
Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight. The Bank of England’s Gertjan Vlieghe argued a scenario where rates in the UK could rise as early as Q2 next year, although NAB’s David de Garis says markets might have overreacted to what was a far more nuanced argument. The pound is the big winner in the major currencies overnight. The ECB’s Jens Weidman expressed concerns about monetary policy being pushed too far to tackle income distribution, whilst the Fed’s Robert Kaplan wrote an article outlining how the US labour market might be tighter than many have thought, with people stepping out of the workforce for early retirement, for example. Tonight, the Biden administration releases its budget papers, with forecasts, and the long awaiting PCE deflator – although with so much uncertainty around the transitory nature of inflation, or otherwise, there’s a question mark on just how valuable this read will be.