Month: May 2021

Fed taper talk pushes yields higher

The FOMC minutes suggest that discussion on tapering might happen sooner rather than later. NAB’s David de Garis notes that these minutes predate the surprise inflation numbers. There’s been a swift reaction on bond markets.

US dollar heading to 2018 lows

Could the US dollar get back to 2018 levels. It’s not far off. It’s going to be more of a grind than a big shove, says NAB’s Gavin Friend on today’s Morning Call podcast.

Uncertain markets change direction again

Markets have reassessed the risk of inflation. On today’s podcast NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the fear for equity markets is a Fed that might raise interest rates aggressively if it is behind the curve.

Inflation, confidence and retail, merely temporary

Markets are optimistic despite slow retail sales, lower consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s an acceptance that much of these are short term effects.

Fewer jobless claims and hopes of a faster recovery

Equities bounced back in the US today, as attention switches beyond temporary inflation to the US getting back to work. All the signs we are seeing are that the US is reopening, say David de Garis.

The inflation shock we were warned about

US CPI numbers came in much higher than expected, with a swift market reaction. NAB’s David de Garis says the bond market reaction has been mature, but you could argue that the equity market has overreacted. Listen to his explanation of today’s Morning Call podcast.

Vertigo and Inflation Fears

The rise in shares this year might have given investors vertigo, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, but the main reason for a fall in equities this week has been rising evidence of mounting inflation.

Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits

Inflation concerns continue to grow. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explain why this hits tech stocks so hard. Plus a look ahead to tonight’s Aussie budget, and why cable has had such a good session.

Navigating out of the COVID crisis

Will economies simply come bouncing back? Not with the accumulated levels of private debt says @profstevekeen. So what should governments and central banks do now?

Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach?

There are mixed views on the cause of the poor jobs recovery in the US. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says some see the stimulus as disincentive to look for work, whereas the markets have taken it as a sign that the Fed’s cautious approach is warranted.

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