There’s a lot to unpack in today’s market moves says NAB’s Gavin Friend as markets walk into a wall of worry!
Markets are much calmer this morning. Equities have managed to climb a little, with the biggest moves in currencies and commodities. NAB’s David de Garis says there’s debate about whether we’re heading to reflation, deflation or stagflation, or all of the above. The Aussie dollar lost more ground, but the pound is taking more of a hammering as fuel shortages will almost certainly be hitting the growth outlook there. Over the Atlantic the debt ceiling is looming, but the short-term issue is passing some sort of budget today, so the government can carry on spending tomorrow.
A heated Senate Banking Committee, doubts over a second term for Jerome Powell, and a looming debt ceiling are all causing concern. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says on the debt standoff, we’ve been here before.
Supply constraints, rising commodity prices and tightening by central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend says all of this is driving bond yields up, steepening curves and causing a move away from tech stocks. But how long will this go on for?
It’s a different atmosphere this morning says NAB’s David de Garis. Stocks were in the black as Evergrande pays out its coupons, and commodities are back on the up too. And the Fed, will taper soon, probably from December.
Markets await the latest chapter in the Evergrande story, but NAB’s David de Garis says China’s controlled economy means it won’t be another Lehman Brothers moment.
Equity markets pushed higher in the US on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says strong corporate earnings have helped, and a belief that the Fed will not be moving much further on rate hikes – even though Fed speakers are keen to suggest otherwise.