NAB – The Morning Call · Inflation and slowing economies. Isn’t there a word for that?
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Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?

Tuesday 19th October 2021

Bond yields are higher globally as inflation concerns mount. New Zealand’s CPI read (2.2% QoQ) sent 10 year yields up 16 basis points, spilling over to Australia. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the inflationary pressures haven’t yet arrived in Australia which means the RBA will lag other central banks when it comes to rate hikes. Meanwhile, China is showing signs of a significant slowdown in output, with GDP growing just 0.2 percent in the last quarter, and with supply chain disruption, COVID lockdowns and energy shortages unlikely to improve that number could go lower. US data also disappointed. Phil Dobbie asks whether these are the signs of emerging stagflation? Or will corporate earnings give the markets some momentum and show there is growth, even with rising prices?

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