Friday 26th November 2021
As America gobbles up Turkeys NAB’s Gavi Friend talks through the latest positioning on tightening by central banks. The FOMC minutes suggested a more hawkish approach, and the latest data would suggest that view has been reinforced, but there’s still a disconnect between what the markets expect and the messaging from the Fed. The Riksbank has started to talk about rate rises, but not before 2024. The Bank of England looked certainly to raise rates last month, but it didn’t happen and a rise in December is now looking less certainly. The ECB are continuing down a dovish path, reinforced by their latest minutes overnight. Meanwhile, the RBA is holding firm, even though the bounce back in jobs yesterday (with retail sales data today) suggests a recovery that most nations would be envious off.