NAB – The Morning Call · RBA to join the rate-rise race?
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RBA to join the rate-rise race?

Tuesday 1st February 2022

It seems more likely than not that the RBA will announce an end to QEW today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says core timed mean inflation is running two years ahead of the RBA’s forecasts which suggests a rate rise this year is also likely. The front end of the yield yield curve rose a little in the US after Raphael Bostic argued for a 50 basis point rate rise in March, although he retreated a little form those remarks today. Inflation is rising in Europe, with figures out just in time for the ECB this week, and the BoE will almost certainly raise rates too. So, is inflation the only driver now? What if the rates push major economies into a downturn?

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