The Morning Call

Start your day with the Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from NAB’s team of expert market economists and strategists.

Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read

Markets have abandoned hope of a pivot by the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the latest non-manufacturing ISM survey shows the US economy remains resilient, with a tight labour market. That’s not the environment to see the Fed ease off the pedal.

Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

Markets are responding to the UK u-turn and a weak US ISM read, says NABs Tapas Strickland, plus adjustments to short positions held last week. And a look ahead to the RBA today.

UK ticked off by IMF, whilst BoE goes back to QE

The Bank of England has suspended bond sales and has started buying them. NAB’s David de Garis explains why the sudden about turn. Is the crisis over for the UK?

US dollar and bond yields continue to rise, till when?

Bond yields continue to rise globally, with NAB’s Skye Masters saying the Fed and other central banks are working hard to convince markets that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Meanwhile the Bank of England promises a significant response to the unease of the last few days, but not till November.

Unruly Britannia

NAB’s Taylor Nugent says uncertainty is driving the pound lower and yields higher. Can the markets rebalance without early intervention from the BoE?

The pound hammered, will it last?

Markets responded harshly to the UK’s minibudget on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a mini Sterling crisis in the making.

0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff

The Fed hiked by 75bp as expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets responded more to the dot plots which have been revised markedly since June, suggesting higher rates for longer. Plus, Putin’s bluff, and the BoE later.

Fed to push higher, Putin pushing for referendums

The Fed will push rates higher tomorrow by 75 basis points at least. Riksbank surprised with a 100bp rise but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, they are earlier in the tightening path. Meanwhile, is the war in Ukraine about to get worse?

Fears the Fed will ‘keep at it’ for a while yet

There’s an expectation the Fed will ‘keep at it’ for a while yet. But not just the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have priced in more than a 75bp hike by the Bank of England as well this week.

Prepare for a volatile week of Banks and Holidays

Prepare for a week or uncertainty. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, after the carnage last week the mix of central bank decisions and thinner liquidity with so many public holidays, means we could be in for a wild ride against this week.

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