The FOMC is predicting two rate rises in 2023. NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether the revised growth and inflation forecasts support this shift in position.

Markets are cautious ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, in part because of weaker retail numbers. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland finds a couple of positives out of those numbers.

This morning pre-FOMC positioning is the name of the game for bonds and currencies says NAB’s Ray Attrill on this morning’s Morning Call podcast. Plus, the rise of oil to two-year highs. How much further will it go?

Markets were unphased by higher-than-expected inflation in the US. NAB’s David de Garis says there’s more interest in next week’s FOMC meeting, after a couple of poor payroll reads.

The fall in bond yields overnight is likely to be market positioning ahead of the US CPI numbers today, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland. There’s stil mixed views on where inflation is heading. China’s PPI’s rose sharply and the BoE Andy Haldane said this is a dangerous time for monetary policy.

Markets are calm, as US job openings boom. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there are much lower inflation expectations. Plus why the UK and EU are worried about sausages.

Markets are lurching from one event to another, says NAB’s Ray Attrill. Right now they are treading water ahead of CPI later in the week. Friday’s Goldilocks moment could be very-short lived.

The US payrolls numbers were just right, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s Morning Call poidcast. They showed recovery was happening, but not so fast that the Fed will bring forward tapering. That helped risk assets and sent Treasury yields tumbling.

A strong payrolls number tonight could push market expectations for a speedier move to tapering. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says market moves could quickly unwind if the Fed doesn’t change its position next month.