The Morning Call

Start your day with the Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from NAB’s team of expert market economists and strategists.

Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?

Inflation concerns are rising, pushing yields higher, whilst China is showing signs of a significant slowdown. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the big question is, is it a blip or something more fundamental?

Shares rising, despite everything. Please explain.

It was an exuberant session on Friday says NAB’s Tapas Strickland driven by US retail sales along with stellar bank earnings, but there are plenty of headwinds which should urge caution, including rate rises being brought forward as inflation fears continue to rise.

Have inflation concerns peaked?

Something has cracked, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, which has seen longer term bond yields falling, despite inflation concerns. Yet inflation remains a concern, even though PPI numbers in the US fell overnight.

Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number

US CPI came in as expected. NAB’s David de Garis looks at this, plus the FOMC minutes, for hints of how the Fed will handle tapering and rate rises.

IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation

Markets are more attuned to the idea of a US rate rise next year, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as the IMF warns central banks to act if inflation persists, which seems likely.

Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish

Energy prices are lifting inflation expectations. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says central banks are planning a faster path of tightening as a result. Could the BoE lift rates next month?

Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen the Fed’s tapering intention

Soft US job s numbers won’t stop a taper from the Fed this year says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. Meanwhile, inflation concerns remain as the US kicks off Q3 earnings season.

Where is the safe haven?

NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about the impact of European fuel prices on broader markets and says its hard to see where the safe haven is right now.

Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates

The impact of the Delta variant has not been as bad as expected, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, evidenced by strong ISM numbers from the US, hence a risk-on mood this morning. But inflation remains a concern around the world.

Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan

Oil price rises have more talk about stagflation. NAB’s Ray Attrill says inflation is a real concern, but will it impact spending when many consumers have savings squirrelled away?

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