The Morning Call

Start your day with the Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from NAB’s team of expert market economists and strategists.

Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain. It’s just grim there.

Whilst markets are uncertain about the future of the global economy, NAB’s Gavin Friend describes the clear direction indicated by the Bank of England. It’s grim.

The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories

Inflation down to 2% with no decline in unemployment and no fall in output? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the Fed’s James Bullard’s views on the path to ‘credible disinflation’. Plus, what to expect from the Bank of England, and a rise in the Aussie trade surplus today?

Pelosi in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near almost done

It’s autocracy versus democracy says Nancy Pelosi as she touches down in Taiwan. Markets were concerned, but Fed speakers have had more impact on markets, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland saying bond yields have unwound the falls that followed last week’s FOMC.

Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa

Is a recession looming? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says indicator today make it clear economies are slowing down, but there is no sign of the Fed (or other central banks) from easing off on hikes. Is this really reflected in market prices?

No inflation slowdown, just wishful thinking

Larry Summers said on Friday that Jerome Powell’s belief that the Fed had reached a neutral rate was wishful thinking, with inflation clearly not tamed yet. So do central banks need to move even faster? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the expectation for the RBA tomorrow is a 50 basis point hike, nothing more than that just yet.

When is a recession not really a recession?

Markets seem to be seeing the US fall in GDP again as a sign that the Fed will go easier on rate hikes, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says that is not the way Jerome Powell sees it.

Fed hikes 75bp, no forward guidance

Equity markets rose sharply as the Fed lifted rates 75 basis points. Quite a reaction for an unsurprising hike. NAB’s David de Garis dissects the press conference, as well as looking at what yesterday’s Australian CPI numbers mean for the RBA next week.

Shares down as consumers focus on the essentials

Big moves in European gas prices makes recession fears in Europe more pertinent says NAB’s Tapas Strickland who also explains how Walmart’s profit warning hit US stocks hard.

Then there was one (turbine)

Russia turns off a turbine from Wednesday pushing European gas prices higher. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the further weaponization of gas supplies can’t be discounted. Meanwhile markets are treading water ahead of the FOMC middle of the week.

Softer data, harder RBA

Significant falls in PMIs shows major economies are slowing. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are taking this as a sign of possible easing in central bank hikes and a fall in inflation, but, he says, as long as supply-side issues remain there’s no guarantee inflation will fall. Meanwhile the RBA predicts faster hikes from the RBA – listen in to find out why.

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